DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the U.S. with and without further market penetration of LED lighting. The forecasted energy savings is represented by the difference in energy consumption between these two scenarios.
Leveraging updated data sources and providing a more detailed breakdown of general lighting applications than presented in past forecasts, the new report estimates the expected future adoption of LEDs based on the current trajectory for the technology and does not necessarily represent its maximum potential in terms of market penetration and energy savings—although the potential is examined in a Sensitivity Analysis section of the report.
Among the highlights:
• LED lighting is projected to gain significant market penetration. It is expected to represent 48% of lumen-hour sales of the general-illumination market by 2020, and 84% by 2030.
• By 2030, the market penetration of LEDs is projected to drive a 40% reduction in energy consumption—saving 3.0 quads (261 TWh) in that year alone, worth over $26 billion in savings at today's energy prices and equivalent to the total energy consumed by nearly 24 million U.S. homes today.
• If DOE's ambitious goals for LED price and efficacy are realized, LED lighting would achieve an estimated market share of 68% of lumen-hour sales in 2020 and over 90% in 2030. This would result in an additional energy savings of 20% in 2030 alone, and thus a 60% decrease in total lighting energy consumption compared to a scenario in which there is no further market penetration of LEDs beyond current levels.
The report, a report summary, and a companion lighting market model are available.