Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are gaining significant momentum as an alternative to incandescent and fluorescent lighting in commercial buildings, particularly as the cost of LED lighting technology continues its rapid decline. While the market share of LED solid-state lighting (SSL) is currently quite low, a new report from Pike Research forecasts that LED share will reach 52% of the commercial lighting market by 2021. The cleantech market intelligence firm anticipates that LED lighting costs for various SSL products will fall 80% to 90% in many cases during the next decade.

“LEDs represent perhaps the most significant breakthrough of the last 130 years in lighting technology,” says research analyst Eric Bloom. “The production of white LEDs, which began in the late 1990s, is starting to transform the lighting industry, and the transition to this new technology is likely to occur very quickly. Rapidly-evolving technologies, such as semiconductors and software, are finding their way into the lighting market, catapulting this traditional, historically slow-moving industry into a new era of high technology.”

Bloom adds that incandescent and less-efficient T12 and T8 fluorescent lamps will be almost completely eliminated over the next 10 years. To take more than 50% of the market, LEDs will take share from compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), high-intensity discharge (HID) lighting, and general linear fluorescents.

Pike Research forecasts that the global market for commercial lighting will reach $42 billion in 2011 and see a peak of nearly $54 billion in 2012 before gradually declining to about $30 billion by 2021. The decline will be due to the extended lamp life of both fluorescents and LEDs as they become the primary lamp types, increasingly displacing demand for replacements for less-efficient and shorter-lived incandescent lamps.

Pike Research’s report, Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets, describes the key factors that are influencing the market for energy-efficient lighting around the world: trends in energy codes, rebate and subsidy programs, sustainability/green certifications, raw material supply issues, geopolitical influences in developing and developed nations, and more.

The report describes the influence of industry structure, key applications, and the many technology issues involved in the decision to specify various lighting technologies. Comprehensive unit and dollar forecasts are presented through 2021, segmented by application, lamp type/LED, luminaires, and geographic region. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free.

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets.